How to Grade Competitive Intelligence Evidence

Short answer: Source ownership, corroboration and decision relevance should change confidence.

Start with the decision

Ask what business choice this evidence could change. If there is no plausible decision, the signal may belong in a baseline rather than an escalation.

Separate observation from inference

Record what the source directly shows, who controls the source, when it was observed and what remains unknown. Only then form the commercial interpretation.

Use an action threshold

Define what additional buyer, deal or market evidence would justify a larger response. This protects the team from copying competitor activity without understanding why it matters.

Questions to ask

• Which ICP or buying role is actually exposed to this?
• What would we expect to observe if this move were working?
• What evidence would disconfirm our current interpretation?
• What is the smallest response test worth running?
• What should we explicitly not change yet?

Competitive decision intelligence

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